All year, we’ve been told the housing market is “cooling.” That’s not quite right..

Markets cool down when things slow, prices shift, and everyone adjusts. What we’re seeing isn’t a slow fade—it’s a full stop. This kind of standstill is riskier than a hot market ever was. 

Right now, few homes are changing hands. Buyers are priced out. Homeowners with low rates won’t sell and take on much higher payments. Inventory’s ticking up, but hardly anything is moving... Pressure is mounting under the surface.

 

Here’s the thing: normal markets need action—people buying and selling, prices finding their level. Frozen markets just jam up. No one knows what anything’s actually worth, sellers hang onto yesterday’s price, and buyers disappear. The system gets fragile fast.

 

Homeowners can’t sell without a payment shock. Buyers can’t stretch to today’s numbers at these rates. Builders are stuck with more homes and less demand. This isn’t “normal,” whatever you’re hearing. It’s tense.

 

Yes, inventory is creeping higher. And yes, everyone says “low inventory keeps prices up.” That only works when people want to buy. Now, listings are up but few are selling, price cuts are common, and new homes just sit.

 

The problem isn’t a sudden flood of sellers. The real trouble is rising inventory and barely any buyers for the long haul.

 

Affordability is worse than ever—monthly payments on even modest homes are up, wage growth isn’t keeping pace, and most people aren’t willing to strain themselves forever. Volume matters more than price; if deals don’t happen, the market can’t fix itself.

 

Jobs are the last prop holding this up. So far, unemployment is low, but hiring’s slowing and confidence is dropping. As soon as the job market cracks, the freeze breaks—some folks will have to sell, and prices will fall not because they want to, but because they’re forced to.

 

2026 isn’t about “when does it rebound?” It’s about what happens when this frozen market gets jolted—by layoffs, credit troubles, or simple fatigue.

 

The Fed will almost certainly act. We’re already seeing signs: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are buying mortgage bonds, and there’s a push for lower rates this year to get things moving. That could mean more deals, even as prices fall—a necessary reset.

 

Falling prices and more activity actually help the market—and anyone in real estate—recover. If you’re in the game to buy or sell, don’t just read the headlines. Understand why this freeze is happening and what could break it open this year. Stay tuned for more posts on the market. Email, call or text with questions - Cathystarkweather@gmail.com; +01.407.274.8476.

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